Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.3)
(135)
39,140
Nifty
(0.3)
(34)
11,753
US Stocks continued to show a lack of direction over the course of the trading day.
Mid Cap
(0.9)
(138)
15,383
The major averages once again spent the day bouncing back and forth across the
unchanged line. The Dow climbed 0.4 percent to a six-month closing high of
Small Cap
(1.0)
(151)
15,021
26,559 and inched up less than a tenth of a percent to 7,998.
Bankex
(1.0)
(337)
34,020
U.K. markets fell on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious stance before the
Easter weekend. FTSE 100 was down by 0.31 percent at 7,448
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.4
110
26,559
On domestic front, Indian shares snapped a four-day winning streak on Thursday as
Nasdaq
0.0
2
7,998
investors looked ahead to Reliance Industries' earnings announcement due post-
market hours. The benchmark BSE Sensex ended the session down by 0.34 percent
FTSE
(0.3)
(24)
7,448
at 39,140.
Nikkei
0.5
110
22,201
Hang Seng
(0.5)
(161)
29,963
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
0.6
21
3,271
RIL to start gas production in KG-D6 block from 2nd half of FY21
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
870
380
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
1,701
1,076
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
156
129
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
2,987
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
NSE
36,570
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
662
867
31.0
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
405
460
13.6
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
244
330
35.1
FII
1,038
16,996
67,288
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,422
1,479
4.0
*MFs
561
(1,308)
229
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
422
486
15.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
GICRE
260
4
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
BALRAMCHIN
146
4
Mar 26, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
RELAXO
906
4
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
MINDAIND
389
3
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
IPCALAB
969
3
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
More Events on Pg7
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
JETAIRWAYS
164
-32
RPOWER
8
-13
RELCAPITAL
152
-12
TATASTEELPP
87
-9
DHFL
157
-8
As on Apr 18, 2019
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
News Analysis
RIL to start gas production in KG-D6 block from 2nd half of
FY21
half of the 2020-21 fiscal. Reliance and its partner BP Plc of UK had in June 2017
announced an investment of Rs 40,000 crore in the three sets of discoveries to
reverse the flagging production in KG-D6 block. These finds were expected to
bring a total 30-35 million cubic metres (1 billion cubic feet) of gas a day
onstream, phased over 2020-22. "R-Cluster development is on track for first gas in
2H FY21," Reliance said in an investor presentation after its fourth-quarter
earnings. Four of the planned six wells that would produce gas from the field have
been completed and the fifth one is being drilled currently, it said adding first
offshore installation campaign is underway and is expected to be completed in Q1
FY20. The second set is called the Satellite Cluster for which all major orders have
been committed and engineering work is in progress. "Manufacturing of
components of Subsea Production System (SPS) has commenced," it said. For MJ,
the third of these fields, bids for major long lead items such as drilling tangibles
and FPSO is underway, Reliance said adding a rig has already been committed for
drilling of wells on the field.
Economic and Political News
States wrest back control over how lands they want to acquire are priced
Insurance firms hike rates after GIC Re changes policy on fire risk pricing
Essar Power, GMR receive govt notice to revoke bank guarantees
Gold imports dip 3% to $32.8 bn in 2018-19, will keep a lid on CAD
Corporate News
TCS modernises 150,000 post offices under multi-year deal with India Post
RIL may use refining arm stake sale to reduce debt, say analysts
Aramco to buy Shell's stake in Saudi refining JV for $631 million
Adani Power withdraws offer to acquire KSK Mahanadi project in Chhattisgarh
With RCom deal terminated, Jio is ready to buy spectrum from open market
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,375
662
867
31.0
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,61,018
405
460
13.6
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,328
422
486
15.2
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,576
57
95
66.7
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,974
421
606
43.9
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,24,781
7,441
10,820
45.4
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,378
256
424
65.7
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,626
728
1,000
37.3
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,981
100
151
51.2
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,055
244
330
35.1
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,23,678
2,290
2,500
9.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
84,960
683
1,050
53.6
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,612
831
984
18.5
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
18,279
1,422
1,479
4.0
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
27,525
1,213
1,764
45.4
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,752
183
327
78.3
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,764
1,207
1,400
16.0
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
46,103
787
890
13.1
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
28,823
676
763
12.9
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
9,701
8,327
9,250
11.1
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,526
69
120
74.5
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
28,093
96
156
63.0
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,557
267
360
34.6
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,090
1,400
2,178
55.5
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,828
2,306
2,500
8.4
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,075
169
256
51.3
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,213
146
210
43.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
59,103
255
290
13.6
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
April 18, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
April 18, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
April 19, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
April 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
April 20, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
April 23, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
April 24, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
April 24, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
April 25, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
April 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 02, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
May 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
May 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
May 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
May 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
May 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
May 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
95,415
-0.2
8.6
11.8
Russia
Micex
2,497
0.5
5.4
10.0
India
Nifty
11,624
7.7
7.0
14.9
China
Shanghai Composite
3,091
5.1
23.9
-2.2
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,929
0.1
11.2
7.6
UK
FTSE
7,279
2.4
8.2
-1.6
Japan
Nikkei
21,206
-1.8
-6.0
-1.2
Germany
DAX
11,526
-0.7
9.2
-4.7
France
CAC
5,351
2.1
13.1
-2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
April 22, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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